Well, I gave in and simply deleted the rows in ubbt_forum_permissions that had the 33(c)_forum=0 as the forum ID.
Voila! I can now "set names" without any error. I now see curly quotes in my forum posts. All of this grief because my forum_permissions table had garbage in it. How did that 33(c)_forum=0 end up in the table?
Hopefully this helps other people who had this issue.
My remaining issue is that the post with the curly quotes will not show UBB properly. You can see this with the top entry here -
http://www.wineintro.com/forum/ubbthreads.php/topics/425926/1Will dig into that next. Does that have to do with the htmlspecialchars change we made earlier?