That's a bit tough to do with a single SQL query. If they have no Private Messages in their inbox, then they will have no entries for their userid in the ubbt_PRIVATE_MESSAGE_USERS table.
If they have sent something and it's sitting in someone elses inbox then there will be an entry in the ubbt_PRIVATE_MESSAGE_TOPICS for their user id in the USER_ID field.
And yes, from talking with Rick there have been a few problems with the numbers getting out of sync, which are supposed to be recalculated when that user logs in. We'll be able to fix the source of the problem in v8.