ok, so adjusting the the public Calendars setting should make the 2 marry?
This site seems to have the same date issue.
The Public Calendar in the Portal/Side Bar here is in NY (UTC -05:00) Time Zone. The CP's Guest Time Zone setting.
Your personal profile settings have zero affect on that portal box, since it is generated once and cached to be displayed to all forum users until its cache expires.
Edit: You've apparently deleted your post just before I replied to it. Luckily I was able to capture it within a quote
